13 June, 2007

 

TiVo becomming irrelevant?

This blog post sheds a dim light on TiVo's future, arguing they can't scale in the rapid evolution of TV content over the internet. However, I continue to believe that TiVo will keep innovating to stay ahead and find new ways to grow subscribers and generate revenue. I think they are perfectly positioned to ride the massive wave of HDTV adoption with the Series 3 that will happen over the next two years. Remember, analog TV broadcasts will cease and be replaced with digital signals on Feb 17, 2009. Along with this, CableCARD technology is going to officially take effect on July 1st. This puts TiVo in a nice sweet spot for the moment, competing with the cable companies with a much better set top box. What are your thoughts on TiVo's future in this rapidly changing television landscape?

Shameless plug: if you activate a new Tivo, please use my email address so I can get the referral points. Simply use [tpullis at yahoo dot com]. If you have already activated, please contact me with your 15 digit service number so I can get the referral. Much appreciated!

Comments:
I disagree with *most* of what was said in that post. I don't even feel like breaking it down. I can agree that *eventually* most content will probably be delivered over IP networks. But I don't know that I even agree that it will be the public network we know of as the Internet.

With the explosion in HD, that pushes IP delivery out into the future as it makes bandwidth even more of an issue. The closed cable, fiber, and satellite networks will control most of the content for many years to come.

Sure, web-based video is catching on. But most people don't want to sit down and watch YouTube on their big screen, or even the network websites. The web content is watched mainly by people who don't have DVRs who missed an episode, or college kids, etc, who use their computer in the dorms and the like.

Given the choice, I really think more people would rather have the nice HD content than web video, which is often lower than SD quality.

TiVo is actually very well positioned for IPTV. The Series2 and Series3 boxes are networkable, and already handle TiVoCast and Unbox content. TiVo could just as easily 'tune' IP delivered 'channels'.

I think discounting 3rd party boxes that run the TiVo software, like Comcast and Cox, is foolish. That's going to be a huge market. And then there is the international market with DVB-T.

Bah, it wasn't a good post.
 
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